Win Your Fantasy League! (You Read It Here First)

I'll admit it-I'm a fantasy football addict. I'm the commissioner of my own league, I send out weekly fantasy newsletters, and I even wrote a 21-page draft guide for my league members. (Email me using this email if you would like a copy). Instead of putting the whole guide on here, I'll give you guys my answers to 8 burning questions. I'm not saying that reading this will necessarily make you the #1 fantasy football player, but you'll probably at least be #2. Jokes aside, have fun reading!

1. Who should be the #1 overall fantasy draft pick? 

This year, that question warrants more thought than previous years. There’s no definitive answer to that question: LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are all very viable options. Jamaal Charles finished with the most fantasy points last season (as Anna can attest), but historically is due for at least a slight drop off. McCoy finished 2^nd, but could lose some receiving touches to new Eagle Darren Sproles. Peterson didn’t finish in the top 5, mostly due to missing 2 games with a groin injury, but of course is always worth a consideration for #1 overall. My bet would be on McCoy, as the loss of DeSean Jackson could compensate for Sproles’ presence by McCoy receiving some of those lost touches. However, I envy whoever has the #3 pick: they can just take whichever one hasn’t been taken.

2. Which rookie position has the most potential, in terms of players worth a fantasy pick? 

Undoubtedly, rookie wide receivers are most worth your valuable draft picks. This year’s crop is especially worth noticing because a lot of talented players landed in great situations to not only start, but potentially excel. I’d say that there are 5 guys (Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Odell Beckham Jr.) worth a pick. 

3. Which teams have the easiest fantasy playoff schedule, and which players benefit? 

This could change based on defenses performing better or worse than last season, but is still a good question. The Eagles draw Dallas and Washington, two teams with lackluster pass defenses. Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin could all be in for big games. The Colts draw Houston and Dallas, so look for dominant performances from Andrew Luck. Lastly, the Ravens draw Jacksonville and Houston. Matchups against teams of that poor caliber warrant a play from anyone decent.

4. How will Peyton Manning come off of a season in which he set new NFL records for passing yards and TDs thrown? 

As incredible as Manning is, it’s seemingly downright impossible for Manning to perform better than his amazing 2013. Manning also lost one of his favorite targets in Eric Decker, and his trusty running back Knowshon Moreno. He is definitely due for some regression, but that being said, should still be the first QB off the board. 

5. Everyone saw Percy Harvin perform exceptionally during the Super Bowl. Can I trust him to be a starter on my team? 

Percy Harvin would be a top-end WR2 (your second starting fantasy wide receiver) if he could just stay healthy. Harvin has struggled with injuries his whole career, dating back to elementary school. Part of the reason he performed so well in the Super Bowl was simply due to the fact that he was fresh, while everyone else on the field had experienced the wear and tear of a 16-game season, plus 2 playoff games. Harvin has tons of potential, but be wary of his injury history come draft day. If you draft him, definitely grab another viable starter at WR2, or a high-end WR3.

6. Which committee backfield should I stay away from? 

Committee backfields are backfields in which two running backs both receive a decent chunk of carries. Some examples are the Bengals (with Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and the Bills (CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson). Taking Gio Bernard is fine, he could even be a low-end RB1, and CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are both decent RB2s. However, I would definitely stay away from the Saints’ backfield of Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Khiry Robinson. First of all, the Saints had a 62:38 ratio of passing plays to running plays last year. That’s one of the most pass-heavy splits in the league. That 38% includes short passes out of the backfield to Darren Sproles, who is now departed. Those short passes will likely now go to speedster Brandin Cooks, a rookie wideout. None of these backs are built to be a workhorse, and none of them receive enough touches to be a fantasy starter. Ingram and Robinson might not even deserve a spot on your bench.

7. The Seahawks are obviously the #1 defense/special teams unit (D/ST), but who’s the #2? 

This comes down to Carolina vs. San Francisco. Both are stellar defenses with great playmakers that allow very few points. I think the difference lies in the ability to create turnovers, which generates fantasy points. The 49ers get a lot more turnovers, and for that reason I’m picking San Francisco as the #2 D/ST.

8. Tom Brady experienced a big statistical drop-off last year, and was unreliable and not explosive as a fantasy quarterback. What should we expect from him this year? 

Brady’s 2013 is a classic example of a player who’s real life value was worth a lot more than his fantasy value. Brady went from 340.28 points in 2012 to 251.52 in 2013: almost a 90-point drop. There’s a simple reason for this: an extreme drop-off in the talent of his receivers. He downgraded from Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. His #1 weapon, Rob Gronkowski, was injured for most of the season. The Pats still went 11-5, cementing his real life value, but unfortunately that does little for his fantasy value. With his current receiving corps, I think Brady’s numbers will be closer to his 2013 total. I think he’ll do better than 250 points, but likely won’t approach his previous levels. He’s been downgraded to a middle-low QB1.