Intro to Fantasy 2016

            Last season was a mess.

            Okay, back up. There’s a decent chance that last season was a mess for you. Maybe your RB1, RB2 and back-up tight end got hurt. Maybe your quarterback, a fantasy stud for years, experienced an inexplicable fall from fantasy grace. Maybe your RB1 got fat.

            Running back was likely your downfall. Running backs fell prey to injury, in the case of Jamaal Charles or Le’Veon Bell, Chip Kelly, in the case of DeMarco Murray, or even the allure of fast food, in the case of Eddie Lacy. Running backs get injured every year, but the multitude of missed games in 2015 seemed unfair at times. 

            Quarterbacks had their share of problems too. Andrew Luck could not overcome injuries and a shaky offensive line last year. Aaron Rodgers, while still finishing among the top-10, struggled without Jordy Nelson and posted career-lows in completion percentage, yards per attempt and accuracy.

            If this is bringing back nightmares of 2015, fear not. It’s a new year, full of new opportunities and new hope. Players are back from injury, DeMarco Murray is now in Tennessee, and Eddie Lacy has lost weight. There is much to be optimistic about, but as painful as it may be, you shouldn’t forget 2015.

            Last year’s woes can be attributed to unluckiness, for the most part, but the fact that so many teams were derailed by luck as opposed to lack of skill means that 2016 should be all about consistency. Players floundered in all sorts of ways last year, so the ones left standing were rendered even more impressive.

            In 2015, we learned that anything can happen. In 2016, this draft guide will show you that consistency will be the key to navigating such an unpredictable fantasy world.

            Why should you trust me? Well, I went 12-2 in 2015.

            Good luck, good reading, and when in doubt, remember the wise words of Marshawn Lynch: “Run through a motherfucker’s face. Then you don’t have to worry about them no more.”

9 Burning Questions

1.     Who should be the #1 overall pick?

As you’ll later learn, receivers are the new running backs when it comes to the first round. With that in mind, there’s a clear number one. Antonio Brown (PIT) should be chosen because he’s the most consistent. The battle is between Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG), but I would pick Brown because while Beckham is more explosive, Brown averages more points per week. Brown has finished as the top-scoring wide receiver for the past two years. At 28, he’s in his prime and surrounded by a playoff offense. If you’re lucky enough to get the #1 pick, take this guy.

2.     What’s the deal with Eddie Lacy?

If you can’t tell from the billion references in the intro, Eddie Lacy (GB) was too fat to play last year. For those that drafted him – and he went #1 overall in some league – he was an absolute nightmare, finishing as the #25^th best running back. This year, all reports indicate that he is back in shape and hungry (no pun intended) to return to his former glory. Remember, Lacy was the #6 overall RB in both 2013. His current ADP (average draft position) is 26.8, making him a late second rounder or early third rounder. Draft Lacy as a low-end RB1, wherever in the draft that happens to fall.

3.     Who is the top running back?

Adrian Peterson (MIN) and Le’Veon Bell (PIT) are competing for this honor. In a vacuum, Bell wins, but Roger Goodell and the No Fun League make me less high (no pun intended) on Bell. The Pittsburgh back was on a league leading pace last year, having accumulated 556 rush yards through just six games, when he tore his MCL and PCL and was lost for the season. Reports indicate that he is fully healthy going into the 2016 season. Why isn’t he #1? The guy keeps getting caught smoking weed. Last year, the league suspended Bell for two games and this season, he’s facing four. Some think his appeal will be successful and that he will start Week One, but I’m going with AP, who was the #2 overall RB last year and consistently finished among the top 20 weekly running backs. However, Bell’s appeal situation should be monitored closely.

4.     Who will be the Fantasy Rookie of the Year?

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) has a high floor and an astronomical ceiling, which is why none of the other rookies stand a chance at matching his production. Elliott, whom the Cowboys traded up to take at #4 in the draft, landed in a fantastic situation. Dallas has the best offensive line in the league, and can make a star out of anybody who runs behind it – just ask Darren McFadden. After DeMarco Murray left, the Cowboys have been searching for another talented runner to get 20 or more carries a game. Jerry Jones found that guy in Elliott, who is a powerful back that can do damage between the tackles and at the goal line. As the starter in Dallas, Elliott will get ample opportunity to satisfy fantasy owners. Elliott will likely go in the first round as a top-5 running back, and for good reason.

5.     Which 2015 star will regress the most?

Demaryius Thomas (DEN) is headed for a fall. Thomas is a supreme talent at his position, but a wide receiver’s success is contingent on his quarterback. Thomas was a top-ten WR in each of the past four seasons, but he had Peyton Manning throwing to him. When Brock Osweiler took over for a large stretch of 2015 last year, Thomas had his worst fantasy season since 2011 (pre-Manning). In his first year AM (After Manning), he’ll be wishing Osweiler was still in Denver, as neither Mark Sanchez nor Payton Lynch inspires much enthusiasm. In addition, Gary Kubiak has pledged to make the offense more run-heavy. Thomas, once a top-3 receiver, is now a middle-of-the-pack WR2.

6.     Which player will break out in 2016?

I’m expecting the Cardinals to dominate this year, and David Johnson should ride that success to a breakout campaign. Johnson accumulated 1,637 total yards and 13 touchdowns last year (including the NFL playoffs) despite not starting until Week 13. Now that the Cardinals have seen what he is capable of, he will be the workhorse back in Arizona. Workhorses are few and far between in today’s NFL, so his designation is one will set him above his peers. Johnson led many fantasy owners to championships last year, and he’s primed to do the same in 2016.

7.     Which team’s players should I stay away from?

I’m avoiding any Ravens wide receivers. Steve Smith Sr., Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman and Kamar Aiken will be competing for targets in Baltimore, and I don’t think either of them will wind up with enough to render them fantasy relevant. Smith always has a big game or two, but he’s 37, coming off of an injury and wildly inconsistent. Wallace has tried to make it work with three different teams, but he’s been a fantasy disappointment since Pittsburgh. Perriman and Aiken are too unproven to take more than a late-round flier on. This is not a receiving corps that you can rely on.

8.     Which handcuffs are worth stashing?

Handcuffing is drafting the backup of a running back because he is injury-prone or may eventually lose the starting job. Handcuffs are taken in the late rounds, and stashed on an owner’s bench until useful or dropped because the starter, whom you also own, is doing fine. Handcuffs are not players in running back by committee situations, however. There are a few players who I want to handcuff this year, because their positions are perilous and their backups have a lot of potential. If I draft Le’Veon Bell (PIT), Justin Forsett (BAL), Rashad Jennings (NYG) or Jeremy Langford (CHI), I’ll also take DeAngelo Williams, Kenneth Dixon, Paul Perkins or Jordan Howard, respectfully.

9.     Which teams have a favorable fantasy playoff schedule, and who does it benefit?

Fantasy is won each week, so matchups are very important. The Buccaneers get to face the god-awful Saints defense not just once, but twice in the playoffs, and get the soft Cowboys defense as well. Those matchups bode well for owners of Doug Martin and Mike Evans. Another team that faces an easy schedule is the Giants. The Giants have Dallas, Detroit and Philadelphia, which means Odell Beckham Jr. could carry his owners to a fantasy championship.

Complicated Committee Corps: Who To Trust

     Fantasy owners dread the term ‘running back by committee’. ‘Crowded receiving corps’ can induce nightmares, and ‘open competition’ is not music to an owner’s ears. While it may be beneficial for NFL teams to employ multiple running backs or not distinguish the role of any wide receiver, it can be very confusing for fantasy owners. Questions arise.

            Which teams will truly use a running back by committee (RBBC) approach this year? Which Steelers wide receiver will step up to fill the role of the suspended Martavis Bryant? Should I be nervous by the amount of carries that Tevin Coleman is getting in training camp? Which running backs will poach goal line carries from the tradition starters?

            If any of those worries sound familiar, read on.

Q: Which teams will truly use a RBBC approach this year?

A:        RBBC is the idea that a team will employ different running backs for different situations without designating one as the lead back. The three teams to be worried about in this regard are the Patriots, Browns and Lions.

            LeGarette Blount, James White, Stephen Jackson, Brandon Bolden and Dion Lewis are all on the Patriots’ roster, and all figure to have some sort of role. The fantasy spin? I’m not trusting any of them to start on my team. Lewis will probably get the most carries, and if you can’t avoid it, he could be an RB2. However, Blount and Bolden will get goal-line duty.

            The Browns operate in a timeshare based on defined niches – Isiah Crowell is the primary rushing back, whereas Duke Johnson gets the majority of receiving targets. The Browns are a pass-first team with a quarterback, Robert Griffin III, that dumps the ball off to the hot reed (often the receiving back) and uses quick slants. RG3 elevates Johnson’s status, making him an RB3. Crowell is probably an RB4.

            The Lions use a timeshare with Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick. Similar to the Browns, Abdullah handles most rushing duties and Riddick gets most of the catches. Abdullah is an RB3 and Riddick is an RB4.

Q: Which Steelers wide receiver will step up to fill the role of the suspended Martavis Bryant?

A:        Martavis Bryant has been suspended for the entirety of the 2016 season, leaving 765 receiving yards (in just 11 games) up for grabs. Markus Wheaton, third on the Steelers depth chart, is the obvious candidate. However, Wheaton was ineffective when playing outside in Bryant’s absence last year. Reports from Steelers training camp indicate that coaches are very impressed with Sammy Coates, a second-year pro out of Auburn who caught two passes for 61 yards in last year’s Steelers-Broncos playoff game when Antonio Brown got hurt. Wheaton will probably get the Week 1 start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Coates, who was not given an opportunity last year, overtakes Wheaton. Consider Coates a deep sleeper with a high upside.

Q: Should I be nervous by the amount of carries that Tevin Coleman (ATL) is getting in training camp?

A:        Last year, Devonta Freeman went undrafted in many leagues because of the presence of Coleman. After finishing as the top fantasy running back last year, he will be far from anonymous in this year’s draft. However, the Falcons have said that they plan to give Coleman more touches. Freeman was designated as the starter in the Falcons’ first official depth chart, as he should be, but he will likely get fewer touches than he did last year. He’s still a solid RB1 choice, but monitor Coleman’s usage in the beginning of the season.

Q:  Which running backs will poach goal line carries from the traditional starters?

A:        When you draft Melvin Gordon (SD), TJ Yeldon         (JAC) or DeMarco Muray (TEN), be wary of Danny Woodhead, Chris Ivory and Derrick Henry, respectively.

The Receiver Revolution: What to Believe

     Donald Trump. Bernie Sanders. Wide Receivers. Tales of revolution, whether political or fantasy, are widespread in 2016. If you’ve picked up any fantasy magazine this summer, you’ve seen that 2016 is the year of the ‘receiver revolution’.

            Sports Illustrated and ESPN the Magazine both dedicated lengthy articles to the subject. Receivers have jumped up on experts’ draft boards. NFL.com and ESPN both have more receivers at the top of their rankings than ever before.

            But what does it mean? What is a receiver revolution, and why is it happening now? The answer lies in the misfortune of 2015, and, of course, consistency.

            Receivers have been gaining ground in the fantasy world for a long time. As the NFL moved more and more towards being a pass-first league, the fantasy world began to emphasize wide receivers as well. However, owners were always encouraged to draft running backs early and often. The increased passing in the NFL meant that owners were supposed to redouble their commitments to running backs, because their increasing irrelevancy in the league translated into an intensified need to stash and covet the good ones.

            The numbers backed up the theory – running backs generally earned more yards, and the best running backs scored more points than the best receivers.

            Last year, that all changed.

            Six wide receivers scored at least 200 fantasy points, while only three running backs reached that threshold. Of the consensus top seven running backs drafted last year, only one reached double-digit touchdown totals: Adrian Peterson. By comparison, three of the top five drafted receivers (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr.) scored over 200 fantasy points, living up to their high draft positions.

            According to ESPN, 36% of your team’s fantasy points will come from your first three draft picks, which is why it is vital to have a good strategy for the beginning of the draft. As you’ve already learned, drafting consistent players should be the most effective strategy this year. Last year, no one was more consistent than receivers. By this logic, your best bet is to nap a consistent superstar wide receiver.

            Nonetheless, I don’t think running backs should be fully disregarded. The theory of RB importance as a function of the league becoming more pass-heavy still holds. There are few workhorse backs, and getting a great running back, of which there are few, could make all the difference. However, the inconsistency of running backs leads me to believe that taking a star receiver is now more important.

            Don’t neglect running backs, or quarterbacks or even tight ends. Just remember that wide receivers are the new running backs, and you’d be wise to adjust your draft strategy accordingly.