9 Burning Questions

1.     Who should be the #1 overall pick?

As you’ll later learn, receivers are the new running backs when it comes to the first round. With that in mind, there’s a clear number one. Antonio Brown (PIT) should be chosen because he’s the most consistent. The battle is between Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG), but I would pick Brown because while Beckham is more explosive, Brown averages more points per week. Brown has finished as the top-scoring wide receiver for the past two years. At 28, he’s in his prime and surrounded by a playoff offense. If you’re lucky enough to get the #1 pick, take this guy.

2.     What’s the deal with Eddie Lacy?

If you can’t tell from the billion references in the intro, Eddie Lacy (GB) was too fat to play last year. For those that drafted him – and he went #1 overall in some league – he was an absolute nightmare, finishing as the #25^th best running back. This year, all reports indicate that he is back in shape and hungry (no pun intended) to return to his former glory. Remember, Lacy was the #6 overall RB in both 2013. His current ADP (average draft position) is 26.8, making him a late second rounder or early third rounder. Draft Lacy as a low-end RB1, wherever in the draft that happens to fall.

3.     Who is the top running back?

Adrian Peterson (MIN) and Le’Veon Bell (PIT) are competing for this honor. In a vacuum, Bell wins, but Roger Goodell and the No Fun League make me less high (no pun intended) on Bell. The Pittsburgh back was on a league leading pace last year, having accumulated 556 rush yards through just six games, when he tore his MCL and PCL and was lost for the season. Reports indicate that he is fully healthy going into the 2016 season. Why isn’t he #1? The guy keeps getting caught smoking weed. Last year, the league suspended Bell for two games and this season, he’s facing four. Some think his appeal will be successful and that he will start Week One, but I’m going with AP, who was the #2 overall RB last year and consistently finished among the top 20 weekly running backs. However, Bell’s appeal situation should be monitored closely.

4.     Who will be the Fantasy Rookie of the Year?

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) has a high floor and an astronomical ceiling, which is why none of the other rookies stand a chance at matching his production. Elliott, whom the Cowboys traded up to take at #4 in the draft, landed in a fantastic situation. Dallas has the best offensive line in the league, and can make a star out of anybody who runs behind it – just ask Darren McFadden. After DeMarco Murray left, the Cowboys have been searching for another talented runner to get 20 or more carries a game. Jerry Jones found that guy in Elliott, who is a powerful back that can do damage between the tackles and at the goal line. As the starter in Dallas, Elliott will get ample opportunity to satisfy fantasy owners. Elliott will likely go in the first round as a top-5 running back, and for good reason.

5.     Which 2015 star will regress the most?

Demaryius Thomas (DEN) is headed for a fall. Thomas is a supreme talent at his position, but a wide receiver’s success is contingent on his quarterback. Thomas was a top-ten WR in each of the past four seasons, but he had Peyton Manning throwing to him. When Brock Osweiler took over for a large stretch of 2015 last year, Thomas had his worst fantasy season since 2011 (pre-Manning). In his first year AM (After Manning), he’ll be wishing Osweiler was still in Denver, as neither Mark Sanchez nor Payton Lynch inspires much enthusiasm. In addition, Gary Kubiak has pledged to make the offense more run-heavy. Thomas, once a top-3 receiver, is now a middle-of-the-pack WR2.

6.     Which player will break out in 2016?

I’m expecting the Cardinals to dominate this year, and David Johnson should ride that success to a breakout campaign. Johnson accumulated 1,637 total yards and 13 touchdowns last year (including the NFL playoffs) despite not starting until Week 13. Now that the Cardinals have seen what he is capable of, he will be the workhorse back in Arizona. Workhorses are few and far between in today’s NFL, so his designation is one will set him above his peers. Johnson led many fantasy owners to championships last year, and he’s primed to do the same in 2016.

7.     Which team’s players should I stay away from?

I’m avoiding any Ravens wide receivers. Steve Smith Sr., Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman and Kamar Aiken will be competing for targets in Baltimore, and I don’t think either of them will wind up with enough to render them fantasy relevant. Smith always has a big game or two, but he’s 37, coming off of an injury and wildly inconsistent. Wallace has tried to make it work with three different teams, but he’s been a fantasy disappointment since Pittsburgh. Perriman and Aiken are too unproven to take more than a late-round flier on. This is not a receiving corps that you can rely on.

8.     Which handcuffs are worth stashing?

Handcuffing is drafting the backup of a running back because he is injury-prone or may eventually lose the starting job. Handcuffs are taken in the late rounds, and stashed on an owner’s bench until useful or dropped because the starter, whom you also own, is doing fine. Handcuffs are not players in running back by committee situations, however. There are a few players who I want to handcuff this year, because their positions are perilous and their backups have a lot of potential. If I draft Le’Veon Bell (PIT), Justin Forsett (BAL), Rashad Jennings (NYG) or Jeremy Langford (CHI), I’ll also take DeAngelo Williams, Kenneth Dixon, Paul Perkins or Jordan Howard, respectfully.

9.     Which teams have a favorable fantasy playoff schedule, and who does it benefit?

Fantasy is won each week, so matchups are very important. The Buccaneers get to face the god-awful Saints defense not just once, but twice in the playoffs, and get the soft Cowboys defense as well. Those matchups bode well for owners of Doug Martin and Mike Evans. Another team that faces an easy schedule is the Giants. The Giants have Dallas, Detroit and Philadelphia, which means Odell Beckham Jr. could carry his owners to a fantasy championship.