The Receiver Revolution: What to Believe

     Donald Trump. Bernie Sanders. Wide Receivers. Tales of revolution, whether political or fantasy, are widespread in 2016. If you’ve picked up any fantasy magazine this summer, you’ve seen that 2016 is the year of the ‘receiver revolution’.

            Sports Illustrated and ESPN the Magazine both dedicated lengthy articles to the subject. Receivers have jumped up on experts’ draft boards. NFL.com and ESPN both have more receivers at the top of their rankings than ever before.

            But what does it mean? What is a receiver revolution, and why is it happening now? The answer lies in the misfortune of 2015, and, of course, consistency.

            Receivers have been gaining ground in the fantasy world for a long time. As the NFL moved more and more towards being a pass-first league, the fantasy world began to emphasize wide receivers as well. However, owners were always encouraged to draft running backs early and often. The increased passing in the NFL meant that owners were supposed to redouble their commitments to running backs, because their increasing irrelevancy in the league translated into an intensified need to stash and covet the good ones.

            The numbers backed up the theory – running backs generally earned more yards, and the best running backs scored more points than the best receivers.

            Last year, that all changed.

            Six wide receivers scored at least 200 fantasy points, while only three running backs reached that threshold. Of the consensus top seven running backs drafted last year, only one reached double-digit touchdown totals: Adrian Peterson. By comparison, three of the top five drafted receivers (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr.) scored over 200 fantasy points, living up to their high draft positions.

            According to ESPN, 36% of your team’s fantasy points will come from your first three draft picks, which is why it is vital to have a good strategy for the beginning of the draft. As you’ve already learned, drafting consistent players should be the most effective strategy this year. Last year, no one was more consistent than receivers. By this logic, your best bet is to nap a consistent superstar wide receiver.

            Nonetheless, I don’t think running backs should be fully disregarded. The theory of RB importance as a function of the league becoming more pass-heavy still holds. There are few workhorse backs, and getting a great running back, of which there are few, could make all the difference. However, the inconsistency of running backs leads me to believe that taking a star receiver is now more important.

            Don’t neglect running backs, or quarterbacks or even tight ends. Just remember that wide receivers are the new running backs, and you’d be wise to adjust your draft strategy accordingly.