1.
Who
should be the #1 overall pick in the draft?
Last
year, LeSean McCoy was a fairly consensus choice as the #1 overall pick.
Picking McCoy wasn’t a bust, but his season was definitely not worthy of the
top choice. That’s part of the reason that this year, I’m advocating for a
safer bet: Eddie Lacy or Jamaal Charles. Consistency has been the name of the
game for Eddie Lacy in his two NFL seasons. He has finished as the #6 back in
both years, and he averaged 14.4 points per game last season. There’s a lot of
concerns about the five backs that finished ahead of him last year, ranging
from suspensions to age to injuries to team changes, that Lacy is the best bet
to post the same stellar numbers that he did last year. The option, I believe,
is Jamaal Charles. Charles finished as the #7 back last year despite battling
injuries, and he was the #1 back in 2013. He’s still under 30, and he’s a true
workhorse, meaning he’s definitely worth consideration for the number one
overall pick.
2.
What’s
the deal with Adrian Peterson?
Last year was entirely
unprecedented for Adrian Peterson, but for all the wrong reasons. After playing
Week 1, “All Day” was on the Commissioner’s List for the entire rest of the
season, due to charges of child abuse, meaning he didn’t see the field at all
from Weeks 2-17. Having been removed from the Commissioner’s List, and
hopefully with all of negative drama of last year behind him, AP is a good bet
for a major rebound. Peterson has all the signs of a running back ready to slow
down: he’s 30, he’s seen enormous workloads throughout his entire career, and
with workload=adjusted numbers, he’s played 29.1 more games than he has in
reality, due to excessive amounts of carries. However, Peterson has proven
throughout his career that he shouldn’t be weighted by the normal standards of
running backs; this is a guy that came back from a torn ACL to rush for the
second-most yards in NFL history. Also, having basically taken a season off,
Peterson is fresh, and hungry to prove himself again. I’d definitely take him
with a top-5 pick.
3.
Is
Rob Gronkowski worth a first-round pick?
This really depends on your stance
on running backs. If you don’t feel the need to take a running back in the
first round, than the Gronk is absolutely worth a late first round pick. Last
year, there were three tight ends in the “first tier” of tight ends:
Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Julius Thomas. With both Graham and Thomas
relocating to teams where their ceilings are limited, Graham to a run-first
team in Seattle and Thomas to a team with poor quarterback play in
Jacksonville, Gronkowski is truly in a tier all by himself. Drafting Gronk
practically guarantees that you will win every tight end matchup, and with
Gronk posting wide receiver-type numbers, it’s like drafting the #1 receiver,
but having that receiver truly be in a class of his own at the position. I would say that he’s worth it if you’re willing to make
a running back sacrifice.
4.
Who
is the top wide receiver?
I would be inclined to say Antonio
Brown, of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brown finished last year as the #1 receiver
by 22 points, a very sizable gap. Brown is extremely athletic, hard working,
and runs routes better than anyone in the league with his precise cutting
ability. With the Steelers defense looking fairly weak, Pittsburgh might wind
up in some shootouts, and will have to rely on the offense a lot, which is
music to the ears of any Brown owner. With Martavis Bryant starting to attract
attention on the other side of the field, Brown might see less double-teams,
another plus. Some might say that Dez Bryant should be the #1 receiver, but
having scored 16 touchdowns last year, he’s definitely due for a regression.
Combined with the fact that the only people distracting defenders from Dez are
Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams, neither of whom are very intimidating, I
would rank Brown ahead of Bryant as my #1 receiver.
5.
Which
committee backfield should I stay away from?
I would avoid the Patriots running
backs more than any other backfield in the league. First of all, the backs
competing for chances to play in New England are LeGarette Blount, James White,
Tarvaris Cadet, Brandon Bolden and Jonas Gray. For starters, none of those
names are known as good running backs: half of them aren’t even known. Blount
will likely emerge as the starting running back, but he has been wildly
inconsistent and injury-prone in the past, and he also has a one-game
suspension to start the season. Bill Belichek is also notorious for shuffling
running backs around throughout the season, sometimes even in the context of
one game. This is extremely frustrating for both the Patriots opponents and
fantasy owners. Remember Jonas Gray? He was a waiver darling after rushing for 201
yards and four scores in Week 11 against the Colts, amounting to 44.1 fantasy
points. After showing up late to practice that week, Gray was in Belichek’s
doghouse for the rest of the season, barely playing. This could happen to any
Pats RB at any time during the season, which is why I would stay away from this
unpredictable and unreliable running corps.
6.
Which
2014 star will see the most regression?
Julius Thomas is about to
experience the painful decline that I like to call Eric Decker Syndrome. Last
year, Eric Decker left the Broncos for the Jets, meaning he traded Peyton
Manning’s Hall of Fame arm for Geno Smith’s for the shaky, interception-prone,
weak, and decidedly not Hall of Fame arm. Decker may have seen a bigger
paycheck, but his stats plummeted; he finished as the #9 receiver in 2013, and
the #28 receiver in 2014. Thomas is leaving Manning and the Broncos for what
may be an even worse quarterback than Smith: Blake Bortles. Combine that
harrowing thought with the following statistic. In his two years as Manning’s
#1 tight end, Thomas has averaged 12 touchdowns, but only 638.5 receiving
yards. Counting only receiving yards, Thomas would be at the same level as
Jared Cook of the Rams, who was the #15 tight end last year. Thomas’ touchdown
levels probably won’t go down to 3, which is the number of TDs Cook caught, but
his change of team will probably mean he scores somewhere between 5-8
touchdowns. If he scores 7 touchdowns, and puts up approximately 600 yards, the
tight end he would be most analogous to would be…..Larry Donnell, the Giants
tight end and the #12 tight end overall. Thomas could surprise us, but expect
him to be a low-grade starting TE. He’s still a TE1, but don’t draft him as a
top-five tight end, or you will be thoroughly disappointed with the value you
get.
7.
Who
will be the Fantasy Rookie of the Year?
Melvin Gordon, barring injury, is
almost a sure bet to take home that accolade. The Chargers jumped up to the 17th
pick to take Gordon, a senior out of Wisconsin. In doing so, a perfect marriage
between player and team was created. Gordon definitely seems to be a
prototypical workhorse back, and San Diego was in need of just that, having
traded away Ryan Matthews and the next best option being career change-of-pace
back Danny Woodhead. In San Diego, the opportunities will certainly be there
for Gordon, who will likely get 250 touches. San Diego wants to run the ball,
Gordon can run the ball well, and his biggest competition for FROY, Todd
Gurley, is still recovering from an ACL tear and plays in the toughest division
in football. Look for Gordon as a solid RB2 on Draft Day.
8.
Are
there any IDPs I should specifically look out for?
While there are always players
that are better than others at the IDP positions, there is only one who is
really worth a higher pick: J.J. Watt. Last year, Watt scored 5 touchdowns, and
in my league, scored 158.15 points! That’s more than Kelvin Benjamin, Frank
Gore, or Jimmy Graham! Watt will be a huge asset to whoever drafts him.
9.
Which
teams have the easiest fantasy playoff schedule, and which players benefit?
One team with a favorable fantasy
playoff outlook is the Saints, who take on Detroit and Jacksonville, neither of
whom have a strong pass defense. This is good for owners of Drew Brees and
Brandin Cooks. The Vikings get to play two less-than-ideal run defenses when
they face the Bears and the Giants, so Adrian Peterson stands to benefit.
Lastly, the Panthers play the Giants and the Falcons, both of whom have poor
rush defenses and shaky pass defenses, which will be good for Cam Newton and
Kelvin Benjamin, and if he’s still upright, Jonathan Stewart.
