Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Facing 3rd and Long: What to Expect From the 0-2 Teams

After two weeks, 9 NFL teams stand at 0-2. Six are from the NFC, 3 are from the AFC, 4 were playoff teams in 2014, and all are facing the daunting reality that another loss in Week 3 could spell serious trouble. What do these teams' defeated records indicate? You're about to find out.

Teams That Should Get Back On Track
Teams: Indianapolis, Seattle

Some of these teams' losses are easier to explain than others. If you're a Seattle fan, I wouldn't be too worried, at least as far as playoff implications go. Without Kam Chancellor, who didn't play either game due to a contract holdout, the fearsome Seattle defense looked a little lost without its leader. Facing the Rams, the defense couldn't hold when it needed to, and, a little more understandably, had the same problem when facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. While the St. Louis loss was definitely suspect, the Green Bay loss was totally understandable, as these are fairly evenly matched teams when Chancellor is on the field. The absence of Chancellor, for me, was definitely Seattle's main culprit. With the proper personnel back on the field, the Seahawks should get back on track and make the playoffs once again, although the early-season struggles might be an indication that another Super Bowl may be less likely than 2013 or 2014's teams.
Fans should panic if: Seattle loses to Chicago next week

Indianapolis seemed to be all in for a Super Bowl run, adding skilled veterans Frank Gore and Andre Johnson in the offseason, but the formerly dynamic offense has seemed lifeless and mistake-prone instead of the well-oiled machine we've become accustomed to seeing from an Andrew Luck offense. However, Indy opened last year 0-2 as well and still made the AFC Championship game, so this isn't entirely unprecedented. The main problems for Indy, in their games against the Bills and Jets, have been a historically weak offensive line and an injured secondary. The offensive line has been horrible, but Luck is used to this - he's taken the most hits of all quarterbacks every year of his career. There are a few elements at play that made the offensive line woes particularly glaring the past two games. The first is that the Colts have played two teams with very intelligent defensive-minded coaches, Rex Ryan and Todd Bowles, who are both big believers in the blitz. Facing constant blitzing, combined with good secondaries, particularly for New York, it was extremely difficult for Luck to find anything to work with, hence the turnovers. However, Luck is proven in dealing with shaky offensive line play, and likely the last two games were just him getting back into the football grind behind his makeshift offensive line, which is what happened last year. As for the secondary, Vontae Davis will soon return from injury, which should give Indy a boost. Also, Indy always has one of the easiest schedules, and hasn't gotten a chance to play any of their weaker division mates yet. Expect a bounce back.
Fans should panic if: the Colts lose to one of their division rivals

Teams Could Bounce Back, But Being 0-2 Is Definitely A Cause for Concern
Teams: Baltimore, Philadelphia

Baltimore is always relevant in the AFC playoff conversation (5 berths in 6 years under Coach Harbaugh), but the 0-2 start is a little discouraging. The defense, which has come to define Ravens teams in years past, gave up 37 points to the Raiders. Yes, you read that correctly. Obviously some of that has to do with losing team leader Terrell Suggs for the year, but until the D can figure out how to function without Suggs, they will struggle. On the offensive side of the ball, Joe Flacco and Co. have been fine, but it's tough when your only receiving option is Steve Smith, who's 36. Things should get better when Breshad Perriman finally makes his debut, but this could be a tough year for the Purple and Black. They'll probably still find a way to make the playoffs, but I think that that's the ceiling for this year's team.

After a whirlwind offseason, the Eagles have come out of the gate extremely disappointingly. Sam Bradford has looked asleep in the pocket, DeMarco Murray is barely getting any touches and finding it difficult to get into space behind a shoddy Eagles O-Line, the defense has bended and then broken, and if they don't fix their problems soon, Chip Kelly could be in for a long season. As Robert Mays put it, "The decision to run $22 million guaranteed of running backs behind $1.1 million of guards seems to be backfiring." The cornerbacks are playing worse than if there was no corner at all. This team has enough talent to correct itself, but also enough highly-paid egos and sketchy cornerbacks, guards, and quarterbacks to turn this season into a train wreck.
Fans should panic if: The Eagles lose to the Jets AND the Redskins, or get blown out by either team

This Team Should Rebound from 0-2, But Not Enough
Teams: Houston, Detroit
Houston almost made the playoffs this year on the power of JJ Watt alone, but the quarterback situation will certainly hinder them. Houston has played Kansas City and Carolina this year, both respectable teams, so the losses aren't too much cause for concern. However, neither Brian Hoyer nor Ryan Mallett can get this team to be better than last year's, which still didn't make the playoffs, especially without the services of Arian Foster. Until Foster comes back, this team will definitely struggle, and while it's possible, I don't think the postseason is within Houston's reach this year.

Detroit seems to be mediocre one year and playoff-bound the next even with the same personnel from year to year, so it's no surprise that after a good year, the Lions already seem to having a down one. The Lions' secondary has always been shaky, and without a fearsome defensive line, the cornerbacks and safeties are being exposed like never before. The Lions will always be interesting with Calvin Johnson in the mix, and rookie RB Ameer Abdullah looks promising, but I don't think a playoff run is in store for the Boys in Honolulu Blue in 2015.


0-2 Is An Indication of the Year to Come
Teams: Chicago, New York Giants

Chicago is perhaps the most likely of the 9 teams to start 0-2. The offensive line is suspect, as per usual, Jay Cutler sucks, as per usual, and the defense has too many holes, as per usual. Now with Cutler out and Jimmy Clausen in, plus Alshon Jeffrey's injury, there's no one to distract defenses from  Chicago's last hope, Matt Forte. This looks like a lost year for the Bears.

In both of their games this year, the Giants have gone up in flames when it mattered most: at the end of the fourth quarter. The Giants can hang with nearly any team, but they don't have the run game to take control early, or the defense to shut teams down in the fourth quarter. This is a very easy team to expose, and while it would be insane to say that they will lose every close game they play in, I think that is what will happen in the majority of their close games. Another losing season is in store for these guys.


0-2 Is The New Normal
Teams: New Orleans
The arm of Drew Brees has been able to mask the fact that, for the past 1-3 years, the Saints have not been a good team. Without Brees, who will be out for a while with a shoulder injury, there's nothing to stop the Saints from exposing their mediocrity. This is already a lost year.