As spreads become set, people start placing bets, and people talk about the fact that the Super Bowl will be in New York as if we haven't heard from the 2+ years of coverage, one prevailing message shines through: We're all screwed. The NFL playoffs have been such a crapshoot recently that no matter how much you know, we're all in the same boat. Since 2006, only two teams that had first-round byes won the Lombardi, there's been a Round 2 upset where the spread favored the loser by at least 8.5 seven times out of the last eight years, and Mark Sanchez won 4 playoff games. Yes, you read that right. FOUR PLAYOFF GAMES! It's not often disputed that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees are the current best QBs. Yet come January, those men are a combined 19-16, while Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez, Joe "I Get Paid by the Incompletion" Flacco, and Eli "Interception Record" Manning are a combined 21-9.
What I'm trying to say here is that the playoffs are a complete crapshoot. What I've found is that each year there's a 'Team of Destiny', a team that people have doubts about. The 2012 Ravens, 2011 Giants, 2010 Packers, 2009 Cardinals, 2008 Jets, 2007 Giants: they were undervalued and went far. Here's a case for why each one of the teams playing this weekend is the coveted 'Destiny Squad'.
Packers:
The Packers have already got some green and yellow magic going with that 4th and 8 last week. This is a team that has won games with Scott Tolzien at QB. Who's Scott Tolzien, you say? My point exactly Clearly they've already got some luck, and they can't even sell out the game, meaning people are betting against them (or nobody wants to sit around in below-zero weather). Already having luck + non-believers? This team is definitely a contender.
Bengals:
Everyone and their uncle has been talking about how you can't trust Andy Dalton, so the undervalued aspect is already in place. They haven't won a playoff game since 1990-if they do win they might as well go all the way to the Super Bowl.
Chargers:
They've got absolutely no momentum after barely beating out the Chiefs' backups (2012 Ravens, anyone?), and are lucky to even be in the playoffs anyway. Nobody believes in these guys, always a plus when you want to be the Team of Destiny. Also, there's the Redskins. The Redskins have beat the Super Bowl winner the past 3 years, and the Bolts are the only team they've beat in the playoffs this year. There's definitely some hope here.
49ers:
Everyone's been talking about Kaepernick's inconsistency, so they've already got doubters. They were kept from winning the division by a bad referee call involving Ahmad Brooks and Drew Brees, so they've got the revenge factor going for them. Also, they're incredibly talented.
Chiefs:
They've gone 3-5 the last 8 games, have lost to every playoff contender they've played, and have perennial playoff losers Alex Smith and Andy Reid. Recipe for disaster? Sure looks like it, but this kind of non-moentum and bad stats are usually present in the Team of Destiny.
Eagles:
No one disbelieves in the Eagles, per say, but very few people believe they're going far. I like to call this half-belief, and it was present in the 2010 Packers. Follow these guys.
Saints:
All anyone can talk about is Drew Brees' shabby record in away games, let alone his record in cold weather. Disbelief? Present! Destiny? Potential!
Colts:
Everyone's quick to mention that while the Colts offense has rejuvenated recently, it's been against the likes of the Texans and Jaguars. Like the Eagles, people sort of half-believe in them, which gives them destiny potential.
MY PREDICTIONS:
Packers: 20 49ers: 16
The Packers are made for cold-weather, so this will be tough for a team coming from San Francisco. Rejuvenated by a 95-yard drive with 1:30 remaining, the Packers D holds on for the win against the men in red and gold.
Chiefs: 39 Colts: 31
I just don't have enough faith in an up-and-down Colts team to knock off a Chiefs team that while questionable, had one of the best records in the league. With the Colts down and driving, Trent Richardson will fumble in the red zone with under a minute left, and Tamba Hali will return it for a score.
Saints: 27 Eagles: 22
Drew Brees will shock everyone with a great game, and Nick Foles and Chip Kelly's inexperience will derail them. Rookie coaches rarely make it far. The Saints defense will get a big stop on 3rd down with around 6 minutes left, and the Saints will take all of it off the clock for the win.
Chargers: 27 Bengals: 13
The Bengals can't overcome their playoff losing habits with a terrible game by Dalton, and the suspect Chargers D forces too many 3-and-outs.
Sound off in the comments with your thoughts! Happy football watching!
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